05 апреля 2019

Dangerous Games in Transcaucasia Threaten Stability

Talk about a military alliance between Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey began in the 90s. In 1997, in opposition to Russia, the military-political alliance GUUAM was established with the participation of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova. In 2005, Uzbekistan left the organization, and its name lost one letter “U”. At a certain stage, GUAM even considered the possibility of creating its own peacekeeping battalion, but, according to the former Moldovan president Voronin, he blocked this initiative. The last time the GUAM summit was held in 2017 in Kiev. On the consideration of military issues is not reported. Only peace issues that were considered were reported: a full-scale organization of a free trade agreement, a transport corridor within GUAM, etc.
As you can see, Moldova is not in a hurry to build up military cooperation within GUAM. Ukraine, for obvious reasons, cannot sponsor military cooperation with the remaining Georgia and Azerbaijan. Against this background, the latter are actively looking for ways of a military alliance with Turkey. Back in May 2017, Georgian security expert Vakhtang Maisaya said in an interview with Radio Sputnik that the creation of an alliance between Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan based on a tripartite ministerial is not excluded, and that this format is focused on ensuring energy security and other issues of military-economic character A few days earlier, the fifth ministerial was held at the level of the Ministers of Defense of Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan in Batumi. After the meeting, Georgian Defense Minister Levan Isoria, his Turkish counterpart Fikri Yshik and Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov signed a joint statement saying that the countries will continue to participate in ensuring peace and stability at the regional and international levels. In the same year, the heads of the General Staffs of the Armed Forces of Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan gathered in Tbilisi within the framework of the same format. The sixth meeting of the ministers of defense of these countries took place on March 31, 2018 in the Turkish city of Giresun. At the same time, it was noted that relations between Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan in the field of defense have become more intense since 2012, when the foundation was laid for the holding of a ministerial in a trilateral format at the level of defense ministers. So in November 2018, the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan, Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov, the Chief of the General Staff of Turkey, Army General Yashar Güler and the Chief of the General Staff of the Georgian Armed Forces, Major-General Vladimir Chachibaya held a regular meeting in Baku. Hasanov said at the end of the meeting, it was organized on the instructions of the heads of the three brotherly states: "The meeting discussed the military-political situation in the region. Its goal is to support the strategic projects of the three brotherly countries implemented in the region, as well as peace and stability." According to him, the meeting discussed the work carried out by the working group over several years. In addition, the work plan for 2019 was confirmed. According to Hasanov, the trilateral meeting once again confirmed the adherence to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the states. "At the meeting, a decision was made on the deepening of cooperation in the military, military-educational, military-medical fields." The ministerial has become traditional and is held in turn in each of the three countries. It mainly discusses issues of deepening cooperation in the military sphere between the three countries, as well as ensuring stability and security in the region. We see that contacts between the defense departments of the three countries are very intensive. Of course, this union will be under the leadership of Turkey. The Georgian expert Irakli Japaridze, who writes in one of his articles, adheres to the same opinion: “Turkey will continue to secretly or explicitly maintain its leading and unequal role in the coalition, as it surpasses both our Georgia and Azerbaijan in economic and military-political relations, without hiding their expansionist ambitions. " According to a number of serious Georgian experts, including Irakli Dzhaparidze, the strengthening of the military alliance of Georgia with Azerbaijan and Turkey will lead to a crisis in relations with friendly Georgia, Armenia. “If Ankara is ready to support Baku in the Karabakh conflict, then Georgia has close economic contacts with Armenia, which it is not yet ready to sacrifice for the sake of ensuring the integrity of the trilateral format,” the political scientist is convinced. He also warns that “if Georgia’s military coalition is strengthened with Turkey, the threat of Georgian Yezidi Kurds in“ acts of retaliation ”on our territory increases,” in the sense of Georgia. The question arises, what is common between these three countries, which in the historical past often fought among themselves? Each of them wants to retain or reclaim the territories that they have seized in the historical past through dishonest means. At the same time, their disguise ambitions, as we see from the above quotation by Hasanov, they mask with such words as “adherence to territorial integrity”, “sovereignty of states” and so on. It is clear that these are only euphemisms for phrases denoting the seizure of the territories of South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Abkhazia. But Armenia will defend Nagorno-Karabakh, and in order to seize the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, it is necessary to defeat Armenia. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the strengthening of the alliance of Georgia with Azerbaijan and Turkey in the Transcaucasus, as well as the emergence of this military-political component of this alliance as opposed to the CSTO, of which Armenia is a member, is a direct threat to the security of Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Inal Pliev for the IA Res http://cominf.org/node/1166521850

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