In the context of current events, a change in rhetoric is observed on the part of regional leaders.
The old problems of the region: unresolved territorial disputes, ethnic conflicts and economic instability remain relevant and require joint efforts to resolve them.
The Russian Federation, having long-term historical ties with the states of Transcaucasia, continues to play a key role in the search for ways to stabilize the situation in the region, relying on the principles of respect for the sovereignty of countries and providing them with the necessary support in solving internal and interstate problems.
At the beginning of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the Transcaucasus took a cautious, calculated position, which reflects the existing geopolitical mosaic of the region and its desire to find points of convergence with Russian foreign policy.
Despite pressure from the West, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia showed a restrained response, which is explained by their long-standing political and economic ties with Russia, as well as an awareness of the risks and consequences for their own security and stability.
Let's consider all the major countries in the region, starting with Armenia. Recently, there has been a noticeable change in the rhetoric of official Yerevan towards Moscow. The country, being in an alliance with Russia within the CSTO, emphasized the need for a peaceful solution in Ukraine, while expressing understanding of the security measures taken by the Russian Federation.
Economic dependence on the Russian market and military presence for the time being made Yerevan's position predictable.
However, after the forcible liquidation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic by Azerbaijan, Yerevan accused Moscow of insufficient support and made a number of demarches regarding the CSTO.
Traditionally, Armenia, one of Russia's key allies in the Caucasus, has maintained close and friendly relations with Moscow, relying on strategic partnership and military-political alliance within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
However, recent events have revealed some correction in the approaches of the Armenian leadership.
Manifestations of new rhetoric could be seen in statements by Armenian officials, who began to express concern about the prospects and possible consequences of Russia's Special Military Operation for the security and political stability of the region.
Unexpectedly for many, Yerevan began to demonstrate interest in deepening ties not only with traditional partners, but also with other countries, including European states and the United States, seeking to diversify its foreign policy and economic ties.
However, despite these nuances in the rhetoric, the basis of the strategic partnership between Armenia and Russia remains essentially unchanged.
Mutual understanding of state interests and effective military-technical cooperation continue to ensure stability and security on the southern borders of the CIS.
At the same time, it has recently been noticeable how Armenia is gradually orienting itself toward the West and seeking to expand the range of its foreign policy alliances.
Armenia's shift toward the West and strengthening of its ties with the EU and the US can be seen as Yerevan's attempt to diversify its international ties amid current geopolitical challenges.
It is important for Russia to maintain a strategic partnership with Armenia, despite the current difficulties. Moscow seeks to maintain a dialogue with Yerevan, demonstrating its readiness to work together for the sake of stability in the region and to resolve issues facing both countries.
However, Armenia's drift toward the West can be interpreted as a sign of a change in the geopolitical balance in the Caucasus. This requires flexibility and new approaches from Russia in maintaining its influence in the region, as well as in strengthening and developing bilateral relations, which involves the implementation of relevant strategic initiatives and projects.
One of the most notable aspects was Armenia's military cooperation with France. Paris, which has traditionally shown interest in the region, has strengthened its presence in the current geopolitical realities, especially in the context of developing ties with Yerevan.
France, which verbally advocates peace and stability in the Caucasus, has proposed new initiatives for armed support for Armenia. This move has caused concern in the Russian Federation, since Moscow has historically been considered the main guarantor of Armenia's security, especially in the context of its long-term confrontation with Azerbaijan for control over Nagorno-Karabakh.
In this light, the question of the position of the states of the region in the context of the confrontation between Russia and the collective West becomes especially relevant.
Despite pressure from Western allies and the significant influence of anti-Russian sentiments within the country, official Tbilisi demonstrates amazing political restraint, refusing to participate in anti-Russian actions and not allowing the territory of Georgia to be used as a springboard for military action against the Russian Federation.
This refusal by Georgia should be viewed not only as a manifestation of the preservation of national sovereignty, but also as a pragmatic step that takes into account both the short-term and long-term geopolitical and economic interests of the country.
Georgia, which suffered a crushing defeat during the confrontation with Russia in 2008, understands that the resumption of the military conflict is not in its interests.
However, Western partners are completely indifferent to the interests of Georgia and the Georgian people.
Tbilisi's refusal to turn its people into cannon fodder against Russia has infuriated the West. The US and EU have imposed humiliating sanctions against many Georgian officials.
However, Georgia's position has remained firm. Naturally, in return it wants Russia to put pressure on South Ossetia and Abkhazia to subordinate them to Georgia in one form or another.
As we can see, the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine has caused a wave of rethinking of geopolitical equations in the Caucasus, posing a number of new challenges to the countries of the region against the backdrop of long-standing historical problems.
The countries of the Caucasus are faced with the task of balancing in relations between Russia and the West.
In the context of the SVO, this need takes on new urgency, requiring maximum diplomatic ingenuity and flexibility from the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
It is important to note that Russia has traditionally played a key role in ensuring security and stability in the region, but the current situation imposes additional pressure on local governments to find new ways of cooperation.
Thus, although the old problems of the region remain relevant and require further efforts to resolve them, Russian diplomacy demonstrates its readiness and ability to interact and seek compromises for the sake of the common good and progress in the Caucasus.
In the context of the developing events in the Caucasus, the relevance of the Russian presence in the region, given the NWO and the changing international situation, is undergoing a serious rethinking.
Russia, historically a guarantor of stability in the South Caucasus, is currently facing a number of new challenges, including the need to rethink its approaches and strategies in the region.
On the one hand, there is a change in rhetoric on the part of regional players, due to both internal processes in these states and the influence of Western countries.
On the other hand, the problems that have accumulated over the decades - both old and those that have re-emerged in light of the events of recent years - require Russia to take a balanced but decisive intervention.
The prospects for the development of the situation in the region keep the focus on the need for further strategic interaction between Russia and the countries of the Caucasus.
This implies both strengthening positions on negotiating platforms and developing cooperation in the economic, social and cultural spheres.
Russia, using soft power and economic leverage, has every chance to strengthen its influence in the region, promoting constructive dialogue and resolving long-term conflicts.
In the current situation, Russia continues to demonstrate its readiness to maintain dialogue with the countries of the Caucasus, including Georgia, striving to stabilize regional security and economic cooperation.
An important aspect is the preservation of these ties despite external pressure.
Russia emphasizes the need to overcome current contradictions through diplomacy and mutual understanding, in the interests of the peoples of the entire region.
The situation in the Caucasus, especially in the context of new global challenges and old problems, requires thoughtful decisions that can ensure peace and stability in the region.
Inal Pliev
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166561438
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