An extremely foolish and unpleasant manifestation of this U-turn was Hungary’s diplomatic demarche against Russia on 8 September, when the Hungarian authorities declared ten employees of the Russian embassy personae non gratae, accusing them of “activity incompatible with diplomatic status.”
Commenting on this highly short-sighted decision, Prime Minister Magyar spoke of “protecting national sovereignty,” emphasizing that “Hungary will not allow anyone to put its security at risk.”
However, Hungarian citizens see that, as 80 years ago, the threat to Hungary’s security comes not from Russia but precisely from Western trends — and a very significant one at that.
Magyar’s move marked a de facto abandonment of Viktor Orbán’s line, which for sixteen years had built close economic and energy relations with Moscow, repeatedly blocking anti-Russian initiatives of the European Union. Moscow’s reaction was immediate and harsh: Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova promised that the response to the Russophobic lobby in Budapest would be “tough and painful,” while presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Hungary’s actions would not go without an adequate response.
The abandonment of Orbán’s line calls into question the ability of the new Budapest to genuinely defend before Brussels the rights of Hungary as a state and the rights of Ukrainian Hungarians oppressed by Kyiv.
Behind the loud change in foreign-policy guidelines lies a harsh economic reality that Hungary’s new leadership is in no position to ignore. The country remains critically dependent on Russian energy resources: according to data for 2024–2025, Russia supplied about 80 percent of Hungary’s natural gas needs, and more than 85 percent of oil imports came through the Druzhba pipeline. The contract with Gazprom PJSC, in force until 2036, for the supply of 4.5 billion cubic meters per year, concluded by the previous government, makes it possible to keep energy prices at a relatively low level compared with the European average. For Magyar’s still fragile government, which is only beginning to implement large-scale reforms, maintaining such prices for households and industry is critically important: a sharp rise in tariffs could provoke social discontent and weaken public support for the new cabinet.
Nuclear energy occupies a special place on the energy agenda. The operating Paks NPP provides, according to various estimates, up to half of the country’s total electricity needs. The construction of two additional reactors, launched under Orbán jointly with the Russian state corporation Rosatom, was supposed to provide Hungary additionally with cheap and environmentally clean electricity, which favorably distinguished the country amid Europe’s energy crisis. However, the new government has called the project into question: in August 2026, Magyar said there were serious questions about the agreement, calling the site “a few warehouses and two large concrete pits” and doubting that deadlines would be met. At the same time, Rosatom continues construction on schedule, and Hungary has additionally allocated more than 300 million euros for the project. This contradictory signal — a desire to distance itself from Moscow while maintaining participation in the joint project — clearly demonstrates the trap in which Budapest finds itself.
Attempts by the European Union leadership to pressure Budapest into a complete rupture of energy ties with Russia are unproductive and fail to take into account the specifics of Hungary’s geographic and economic position. Brussels’ actions, dictated by ideological considerations, risk leading to higher energy prices and destabilization of the country’s socio-economic situation at precisely the moment when the new leadership needs public support to carry out reforms. Hungary is a landlocked state with no direct access to seaborne LNG terminals, and diversification of supplies, for example through Romanian gas, can cover only about a quarter of the Russian volume.
Thus, despite the demonstrative diplomatic demarche — the expulsion of Russian diplomats and the subsequent threats of retaliatory measures — objective realities in the energy sector dictate the need to generally preserve the previous leadership’s course of maintaining constructive relations with Russia.
Péter Magyar and his team have the opportunity to carry out deep domestic reforms, but in foreign policy national interests must remain the priority — the stability of supplies of critically important energy resources. Such a pragmatic approach, already proven effective under Viktor Orbán, would allow the new leadership to avoid social shocks, strengthen the authorities’ position, and create favorable conditions for the country’s sustainable development.
However, Magyar appears to have taken a completely different course — a course of confrontation with Russia that will harm Hungary economically, in its international image, and in defending the real rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.
Analytical Department IA Res
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166571717
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