Prior to that, at a meeting in
Chisinau on June 1, Pashinyan and Aliyev discussed the delimitation of borders,
a peace treaty, security issues and the rights of the inhabitants of
Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as unblocking transport communications.
In general, alarming news is coming from Nagorno-Karabakh. Video footage of empty store shelves has circulated online.
In the process of settling the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the US and the EU are trying to build a
negotiation process on a platform that competes with Russia. Because of this,
it risks developing into a new global geopolitical confrontation. The reason
for this is the unconstructiveness of the approaches used by the West, which
consider the situation that has arisen solely as a means of exerting pressure
on the Russian Federation, depriving it of influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan
and subsequently ousting it from the South Caucasus region.
Over the past two years, the
Azerbaijani side, with the support of Turkey, has increased its appetites and
puts forward obviously impossible demands, clearly demonstrating its
unwillingness to seek common ground. So, in recent months, President I. Aliyev
has been actively promoting the topic of “Western Zangezur” and “Western
Azerbaijan”, the return of Azerbaijanis to their “historical lands” on the
internationally recognized territory of Armenia, thus preparing the political
prerequisites for a new aggression.
The positions of Prime Minister N.
Pashinyan are not strong enough to enter into open confrontation, but time is
playing on him. His attempts to get out of the orbit of Moscow's influence
somewhat cooled the relations between the two countries, at the same time, the
help of the West, which he counted on, does not go beyond empty statements.
France, on which Armenian politicians relied, is not capable of being a strong
player in the region, does not impose sanctions on Azerbaijan and its
leadership, and is not going to recognize the independence of the
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The EU monitoring mission unilaterally invited by
the Armenian side, designed to promote the establishment of peace processes, is
not coping with its tasks.
At the same time, negative trends
in the Armenian society are of serious concern, to which they are trying to
present through the media the idea of a possible renunciation of the territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh, as a result of the pro-Azerbaijani position of Russia,
which is absolutely untrue. The Russian Federation, like no one else, is
extremely interested in ensuring stability in the Transcaucasus and will consistently
uphold its commitment to a constructive dialogue between the parties, acting as
a moderator of the process.
The factor of Iran, which opposes
the forcible change of borders in Transcaucasia, should not be discounted
either. In the event that Azerbaijan implements a forceful scenario to resolve
the issue of the Syunik corridor, there is a high probability of broad support
for Armenia by the Islamic Republic. Accordingly, Türkiye and the United States
will take the side of Azerbaijan. The United States has long been hatching
plans to undermine the stability of the ayatollah's rule and unleash a
large-scale regional war near Russia's borders.
Achieving stability in such a
complex region as the South Caucasus is possible if the participants in the process
find ways to implement mutually beneficial cooperation programs. It is this
mechanism of consultations that was proposed by the Russian side, in the 3+3
format, which provides for a dialogue between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia,
and their closest neighbors - Russia, Iran and Turkey.
The conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan has an extremely negative impact on the situation in the field of
stability. Recall that during the last war, several thousand servicemen died on
both sides.
Long negotiations are better than
a short war.
Inal Pliev,
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166551126
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