Erdogan's imperial ambitions: will his supporters be happy with the end result?

I wanted to write that the other day the world was shocked by the tragic fate of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, but I realized it, because the world is generally deeply indifferent to anyone’s tragedies. The world swallowed the wars of the 2000s, just as it swallowed the wars of the 90s, swallowed the defeat of the Armenian side, just as it swallowed the defeat of the Azerbaijani side before that.

The world is changing, and politicians must change their views along with it, without becoming a victim of their own propaganda, and even better - so that propaganda reflects realities, and does not shape them. Looking at the mistakes, failures and crimes of others, we must analyze and draw conclusions in order to avoid repeating them on ourselves.

What are the reasons for the defeat of Azerbaijanis in the 1990s? What are the reasons for the defeat of the Armenians in the 2000s?

Is there a lot of qualitative analysis in the Internet space? Either emotions, or propaganda. There may be a good article on this topic on Osnet, but I haven't seen it yet.

Meanwhile, it would be good, without pretending to be exceptionally complete, to once again pay attention to some important aspects of the past and future scenario for the development of the situation in the region.

The collapse of the Soviet Union opened wide the rich and unprecedented in its scale market of the post-Soviet space for Turkey. Goods from both light and heavy industry, agricultural products, and the service industry from construction to recreation went to the territory of the former republics of the USSR and to the countries of the socialist camp, and fantastic amounts of money poured in the opposite direction.

Thanks to sound management, the well-being of the Turkish people has significantly improved. Especially during Erdogan’s first rise to power. This ensured his re-election and victory (allegedly with Russian support) over pro-American coup plotters during a massive coup attempt.

The re-election of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan allowed Ankara to continue to increase its influence in Asia and the Caucasus, and primarily in the former Soviet republics. He made his first visit to Azerbaijan, where he met with I. Aliyev, not in the capital, but in that part of the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, which had previously come under the control of the country’s authorities as a result of military actions. Thus, Erdogan demonstrated to the world community, including the Armenian side, his intention to play a key role in the region.

As a result of Azerbaijan's lightning-fast and brutal military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey has significantly raised its international prestige, demonstrating that it is an important regional military and political force. In addition, Erdogan very successfully appeared for him in the role of defender of the Turkic world, at least the Sunni part of it. Ankara, militarily and politically, through its ally Azerbaijan, invaded the zone that had previously been under the exclusive influence of Russia, and Turkey became the first state to clearly support one of the parties to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. In addition, Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey, also emerged as an important political regional force, which is especially important for it in the long-term geostrategic plan in the light of overcoming the consequences of the military conflicts of the 90s.

In recent days, materials have been published in the media, the meaning of which boils down to the fact that France allegedly intends to take some steps towards military cooperation with Armenia in order to provide itself with a platform for a military-political presence in Transcaucasia, but the author allowed himself to neglect such publications because France will not confront its NATO ally Turkey and challenge its positions. 

Taking this into account, success today is on Turkey's side. Naturally, Turkey will develop this success; it has all the resources for this. The Turkish side is intensifying its efforts to strengthen its position in the countries of Central Asia through deepening economic cooperation, primarily in the implementation of the infrastructure project of the trans-Caspian transport route, which will connect the countries of the Turkic world. In addition to the purely political side of the matter, the region is of interest to Turkey from the point of view of diversifying energy supplies and positioning itself as an “energy hub” of Eurasia. Erdogan does not lose sight of the Middle East either. After the latest bloody events in Israel, videos circulated on the Internet in which Erdogan makes statements on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. 

Thus, we see that Ankara acts both independently and indirectly in its interests. Successfully uses, depending on the situation, both military and soft power. 

The use of Ankara's soft power comes through the spiritual and educational institutions of the “new Turkic identity” (this term is still used in quotation marks, but given the circumstances, apparently not for long), based on the idea of “the religious and cultural community of the peoples of these countries with Turkey and the Turkish people.” . The latter is being introduced into the public consciousness through the products of mass culture and is intended to form among these peoples a set of values that is common to the “Turkish world”. 

Of course, this is not without problems and contradictions. The media write that the Kurdish problem persists, despite the declared pan-Turkism, ethnic Turks at the everyday level are very dismissive of the Turkic-speaking population, that Turkey publicly criticizes China, but pragmatically cooperates with it in the fight against the Uyghurs (their self-name is Turkic, and they are Muslims ). 

Local elites intend to use Turkey’s strengthening political role in the Transcaucasian region and Central Asian countries in the interests of solving accumulated internal political problems and as a balancer in relations with the Russian Federation and China. But they do not see the neo-Ottomanism hiding behind pan-Turkism, and they cannot see the hidden threats to the long-term order for themselves and the population of these republics. Many observers have expressed the opinion that Turkey wants to create a huge Turkic power, Great Turan, under the dominance of the Turks. 

Thus, Turkey’s foreign policy is developing successfully, not only without encountering resistance in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, but also enjoying the full support of the local leaders and peoples. But will they be happy with the end result?..

Inal Pliev for "Res"

Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166552808