The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the Republic of Artsakh was abolished by decree of its president. The Republic of Armenia, through the mouth of its prime minister (and according to the laws of Armenia in this country, it is the prime minister, and not the president, who is in charge) several times recognized the territory of the abolished republic as part of the territory of Azerbaijan. The Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh has reportedly fled their homes en masse.
Azerbaijani citizens, expelled 30 years ago, and their children, on the contrary, are returning. Azerbaijan is building and has already built modern houses, streets, and infrastructure facilities for them.
The country's President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated that citizens of Armenian nationality who wish can remain and live peacefully in their homes, enjoying all the rights of citizens of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijani media reported on a number of such residents, not forgetting to remind that there are already Armenian villages in which people live on the territory of the country. Reports about the life of Armenians in Turkey are also regularly broadcast.
Despite the fact that refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia are reportedly in dire straits and suffering, there are signals from the political levels of both countries that there is a desire to normalize relations.
At the same time, Azerbaijan wants to regain control over several settlements, which in Soviet times were surrounded by the territory of the Armenian SSR, but belonged to the Azerbaijan SSR, as well as gain access to the Nakhichevan autonomy through the territory of Armenia (Zangezur corridor).
Against this background, Pashinyan makes demarches against the CSTO in the hope of the mercy of the West. France did not fail to take advantage of the collapse of Armenia’s foreign policy.
Although France, as one of the international mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, must maintain a neutral position and not take steps that could harm the peacekeeping process, it has begun active supplies of heavy military equipment to Armenia.
Statements have spread in the media that this is the equipment that Ukraine had previously abandoned, which indicates its unsuitability on the battlefield. However, France's behavior raises concerns about the non-proliferation of the conflict and increasing tensions in the region.
France, along with the United States and Russia, is the official international mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, which requires it to develop a balanced and pragmatic approach to building relations with both sides of the conflict.
However, Paris neglects its high status and reputation of French diplomacy in the international arena and is consistently increasing military-technical cooperation with Yerevan. Of course, Paris is not proceeding from concern for the interests of the Armenian side.
If Macron was somehow concerned about the fate of the Armenians, then nothing would stop him from supplying Armenia with stronger types of weapons and in more significant quantities, both before the 44-day war of 2020 and before the one-day war of 2023.
What is France doing? In May 2023, it transferred 50 armored personnel carriers to the Armenian Armed Forces. They were not involved in any way during the war that followed in September, and could not significantly influence its outcome. However, France’s behavior is adequately perceived by Azerbaijan, and we can already talk about the beginning of Paris losing trust in Baku as an international mediator and complicating negotiations on a peaceful settlement.
The possibility of supplying French Mistral anti-aircraft missile systems to Armenia, which appeared on news feeds, could also trigger an arms race and provoke even greater instability in the region, threatening the peace process.
According to various sources, France is considering the possibility of transferring a wide range of weapons and military equipment to Armenia, primarily artillery installations, UAVs of various types, MANPADS, ATGMs, communications and electronic warfare equipment, Sherpa armored personnel carriers, 50 Bastion armored vehicles (24 have already been delivered). As you can see, most of the French weapons intended for export to Yerevan are predominantly of the offensive type.
France must understand the importance of maintaining trust, balance and avoiding actions that could worsen the conflict and disrupt the peace process.
The American publication Global Security Review agrees with this point of view, writing that “President Macron’s pro-Armenian rhetoric could lead to deepening cooperation in the field of air defense.” On our own behalf, we can add that we are talking only about rhetoric, because it is naive to believe that Paris has some kind of altruistic motives in relation to Yerevan: it only wants an armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Pumping Yerevan with French weapons fuels revanchist sentiments among a certain part of Armenian society. There may be a desire to use it to attempt a forceful return of Nagorno-Karabakh. Paris is extremely interested in a protracted war on the southern borders of Russia in order to surround it with a burning belt of chaos and instability. For this reason, it does not take into account the interests of its ally, NATO member Turkey.
Macron must understand that war is a double-edged sword. The zone of Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation is not so far from Europe. His irresponsible policy in Transcaucasia, the transformation of the “frozen conflict” into active hostilities, along with events on the eastern borders of Russia, will aggravate the crisis in the economy and social sphere of the European Union, including France itself.
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166553754
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