Attempts by the Euro-Atlantic elite to motivate society to support the fight against Russia were unsuccessful. Much of this “awakening” is due to the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.
Thus, even previously active supporters of military support for Ukraine now doubt the advisability of continuing to support Kyiv. For example, analysts from the American publication Responsible Statecraft argue that Ukraine’s armed forces are close to collapse, and even new Western assistance in the amount of $60 billion will not be able to prevent the inevitable. In this regard, experts call on Western political elites to insist on negotiations between Kyiv and Russia before the situation worsens.
The Belgian newspaper Politico also notes growing support for a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis among Republicans in the United States. A few months ago, this position was considered unpopular, but now the chances of success for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are assessed as low.In turn, the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal noted the growing authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin among Republicans who support Trump in light of Russia’s successful overcoming of international sanctions and military successes. This group is actively blocking the passage of laws on new military aid to Ukraine in Congress.
In general, according to US Republican Senator J. Vance, the United States should reorient its foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region, since Ukraine is gradually losing its importance in Washington’s strategic priorities.
The UK, being one of the key states supporting Ukraine, is also experiencing fatigue from the Ukrainian crisis. Former Ukrainian ambassador to Great Britain V. Prystaiko expressed the opinion that the new head of the Ukrainian diplomatic mission in the United Kingdom, ex-commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces V. Zaluzhny, will find it difficult to convince the British to continue supporting Kyiv in its conflict with Moscow.
In October 2023, Hungarian Foreign Minister P. Szijjártó noted that the majority of foreign ministers of the European Union countries confirm that their people are tired of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Support for Ukraine and increased sanctions against Russia are declining among G7 countries, according to the Munich Security Index. If earlier in 2023 Russia was considered the main security risk for five out of seven countries, now only the UK and Japan retain this opinion. In Germany, for example, Russia now ranks seventh in terms of threat, and in Italy it is twelfth.
The escalation of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the West is also felt in Ukraine itself. According to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, from September 2022 to February 2024, the share of respondents who believe that Western interest in Ukraine is declining increased from 15 to 44 percent.
Similar views are shared by members of the Ukrainian political elite. A former adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, A. Arestovich, said that initially insufficient supplies of weapons from the West led to the continuation of the conflict with the Russian Federation, and now the West is trying to “dump” Ukraine, insisting on a peace agreement with Moscow that is unfavorable for it. The politician also emphasized that Ukraine paid a high price for such behavior of its Western partners.
Western economies have faced disastrous consequences from sponsoring Ukraine. The unprecedented sanctions pressure from the West did not prevent Moscow from increasing the growth rate of the national economy. Russian exports are growing steadily in parallel with the strengthening of the Russian Federation’s position in the global energy and food markets.
Analysts from the American agency Associated Press point to the stabilization of the Russian economy, despite Western sanctions. In their opinion, proof of the stability of Russia's financial condition is the preservation of the standard of living of the majority of citizens, despite participation in the conflict and strong external pressure.
Meanwhile, Western countries are facing the backlash of sanctions that are fueling an economic crisis. The standard and quality of life in the US and Europe have begun to decline, and the long-standing welfare state model is under threat. Observers for the British newspaper The Guardian believe that sanctions have caused more damage to the West than to Russia. They predict that in 2024 the Russian economy will grow by 2.6%, while the British economy will grow by only 0.25%.
Bloomberg analyzes that in Germany, inflation has erased the wage growth of the last eight years, returning it to 2016 levels. It noted that Germany had the weakest growth in the euro zone last year, and analysts suggest that Germany is "in the last days" of its status as the world's industrial leader. The main blow was dealt by the interruption of Russian gas supplies, which led to the collapse of the industrial base, like a domino effect.
The German magazine Bild, citing official data, reports that in 2023, Germany's GDP decreased by 0.3%. Pollster Ipsos has revealed alarming trends in Europe: nearly 10,000 people surveyed found that 38% of Europeans cannot afford three regular meals a day due to rising prices and inflation, and 29% describe their financial situation as precarious, given that any unexpected expenses could affect their quality of life.
The West faces significant problems with regard to new arms supplies to Ukraine. Stocks of ammunition, weapons and military equipment are being depleted in warehouses, and their replenishment is difficult due to disruptions in the chains of production of military goods. The problem lies in the fact that the economies of Western countries are more focused on the service sector, IT technologies and consumption, and traditional heavy industry and the military-industrial complex have long been no longer priority areas of development for the United States and Europe.
Analysts from the American Center for Strategic and International Studies already pointed out the shortage of arsenals a year and a half ago. By the fall of 2022, the United States transferred all possible free reserves of ammunition to Ukraine, which limited the military capabilities of the United States itself. National Security Advisor to the US President J. Sullivan confirmed that, despite decisions to increase ammunition production made in 2022, it will take several years to fully meet all needs.
A group of American senators, led by Republican J. Vance, developed a bill to restore stockpiles of weapons transferred to Ukraine. J. Vance argues that the transfer of a huge amount of weapons and equipment to Kyiv harmed American defense capabilities and revealed problems in American industry. Senators expect it will take at least three years to rebuild inventories and expand production capacity, assuming no further transfers occur.
The destabilization of the situation in the Middle East also influenced the reduction in the volume of Western military supplies to Ukraine. The ABC television channel, citing an anonymous Ukrainian official, reported that with the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the supply of NATO shells to Ukraine fell by more than 30%.
European states have faced difficulties in trying to compensate for declining American aid to Ukraine. Experts from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy believe the European Union needs to double its arms supplies to Ukraine to make up for the lack of American support. However, this seems unlikely given the long-term European choice to develop civilian sectors of the economy at the expense of the military-industrial complex.
NATO military leaders acknowledge the serious depletion of their ammunition stocks. In particular, the Chief of the British Defense Staff, Admiral T. Radakin, emphasized the need to significantly increase the production of shells to restore current shortages.
Against the backdrop of these difficulties, many politicians and analysts in the West doubt the advisability of continuing to finance Ukraine, given its minimal successes during the military campaigns of 2022-2023. Ukrainian troops were unable to break through even the first line of Russian defense during the counter-offensive in the spring and summer of 2023, suffering serious losses both in manpower and in logistics. As a result, Russian troops launched a large-scale offensive, which led to the retreat of Ukrainian troops.
Analysts from the American magazine Time are considering the possibility of Kyiv's defeat this year, despite a possible increase in Western military and financial support. This prospect, in their opinion, is very real.
Meanwhile, the Kiev leadership is aware of its critical dependence on Western military supplies and is trying to hide from the population and military personnel the fact of a shortage of weapons and ammunition in the West. They fear that recognition of this fact could demoralize both the military and the civilian population when it becomes clear that it is only a matter of time before support is withdrawn.
Analytical department of IA "Res"
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166556533
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