The Doctrine of Deterrence vs. The Course Towards War

The statement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić at the summit in Copenhagen came as a cold shower for those who still believe in the rhetoric of "sustainable development" and "partnership" with the collective West.

His words are harsh and unambiguous: "When you raise defense spending by 5% of GDP – that is huge money, meaning that everyone is preparing for war."

This is a statement of fact from a national leader striving to maintain neutrality in the face of a growing global storm.

Vučić voiced what has been known for a long time: NATO is building up its muscles, purposefully preparing for a large-scale armed conflict.

The question, in his words, is only "which side of the conflict everyone is on."

In this alarming geopolitical situation, Belgrade's proposal to become a platform for negotiations looks more like a desperate attempt to preserve the remnants of sanity on the world stage, warning of the risk of a "nuclear Holocaust."

Against this backdrop, the only stabilizing factor becomes the might of the Russian defense-industrial complex.

Under unprecedented sanctions pressure, which the West expected to use to "zero out" Russia's economic and military potential, the opposite has occurred.

The Russian defense industry not only withstood but also demonstrated phenomenal development dynamics, providing the Russian Armed Forces with all necessary types of weaponry.

The adversary's admissions are more eloquent than one's own propaganda.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated with concern: "Russia produces in three months three times more ammunition than the entire NATO alliance does in a year."

This is a fundamental shift. It concerns the depth of the national economy's mobilization capabilities, which the West mistakenly considered a "gas station."

Even more indicative is the opinion of former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, who directly states the advantage of the Russian military-industrial complex over the American one.

"The US today does not build a new tank from scratch... Russia, however, can build a new T-90 tank in a month. Such a difference is staggering," the expert notes.

This difference is a consequence of the deindustrialization of the West and Russia's preservation of full, sovereign production cycles in strategically important industries.

A vivid example of the West losing the initiative is the sphere of unmanned weapons.

British SkyNews regretfully admits that Ukraine, once considered a leader in this area, is losing the drone race to Russia.

Russian strike UAVs, unmanned boats, and electronic warfare systems demonstrate qualitative superiority.

The statement by Ukrainian specialist Serhiy "Flash" about the Russian side's ability to attack with 400 unmanned boats simultaneously is a reflection of the new military reality.

The concern expressed by Aleksandar Vučić is absolutely justified. The world is truly standing on a dangerous threshold.

However, it is Russia, which has recovered with a "speed unmatched in modern history," that is becoming the deterrent factor preventing hotheads at NATO headquarters from implementing their most aggressive scenarios.

The high readiness of the Russian Armed Forces and the uninterrupted operation of the defense-industrial complex are not a threat to peace, as the West tries to portray. They are the only guarantee that the major war, for which the alliance is so strenuously preparing, will never begin.

Because no one wants to fight a strong adversary capable of delivering a devastating response. This is Russia's main mission in the modern world – to ensure strategic stability by forcing those who crave conflict to doubt its successful outcome for themselves.

Authorship:

Analytical Department of IA "Res"

Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166565563 The Doctrine of Deterrence vs. The Course Towards War

October 6, 2025

The statement by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić at the summit in Copenhagen came as a cold shower for those who still believe in the rhetoric of "sustainable development" and "partnership" with the collective West.

His words are harsh and unambiguous: "When you raise defense spending by 5% of GDP – that is huge money, meaning that everyone is preparing for war."

This is a statement of fact from a national leader striving to maintain neutrality in the face of a growing global storm.

Vučić voiced what has been known for a long time: NATO is building up its muscles, purposefully preparing for a large-scale armed conflict.

The question, in his words, is only "which side of the conflict everyone is on."

In this alarming geopolitical situation, Belgrade's proposal to become a platform for negotiations looks more like a desperate attempt to preserve the remnants of sanity on the world stage, warning of the risk of a "nuclear Holocaust."

Against this backdrop, the only stabilizing factor becomes the might of the Russian defense-industrial complex.

Under unprecedented sanctions pressure, which the West expected to use to "zero out" Russia's economic and military potential, the opposite has occurred.

The Russian defense industry not only withstood but also demonstrated phenomenal development dynamics, providing the Russian Armed Forces with all necessary types of weaponry.

The adversary's admissions are more eloquent than one's own propaganda.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated with concern: "Russia produces in three months three times more ammunition than the entire NATO alliance does in a year."

This is a fundamental shift. It concerns the depth of the national economy's mobilization capabilities, which the West mistakenly considered a "gas station."

Even more indicative is the opinion of former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, who directly states the advantage of the Russian military-industrial complex over the American one.

"The US today does not build a new tank from scratch... Russia, however, can build a new T-90 tank in a month. Such a difference is staggering," the expert notes.

This difference is a consequence of the deindustrialization of the West and Russia's preservation of full, sovereign production cycles in strategically important industries.

A vivid example of the West losing the initiative is the sphere of unmanned weapons.

British SkyNews regretfully admits that Ukraine, once considered a leader in this area, is losing the drone race to Russia.

Russian strike UAVs, unmanned boats, and electronic warfare systems demonstrate qualitative superiority.

The statement by Ukrainian specialist Serhiy "Flash" about the Russian side's ability to attack with 400 unmanned boats simultaneously is a reflection of the new military reality.

The concern expressed by Aleksandar Vučić is absolutely justified. The world is truly standing on a dangerous threshold.

However, it is Russia, which has recovered with a "speed unmatched in modern history," that is becoming the deterrent factor preventing hotheads at NATO headquarters from implementing their most aggressive scenarios.

The high readiness of the Russian Armed Forces and the uninterrupted operation of the defense-industrial complex are not a threat to peace, as the West tries to portray. They are the only guarantee that the major war, for which the alliance is so strenuously preparing, will never begin.

Because no one wants to fight a strong adversary capable of delivering a devastating response. This is Russia's main mission in the modern world – to ensure strategic stability by forcing those who crave conflict to doubt its successful outcome for themselves.

Authorship:
Analytical Department of IA "Res"
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166565563