Macron's Nuclear Umbrella for the EU: A Lone 'Savior' Leads Europe to the Brink

This week, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke about an alleged threat from Russia, as noted in a media comment by Andrey Kolesnik, a member of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee.

Against the backdrop of France's active fueling of the conflict in Ukraine with modern weapons and many other steps, including arms supplies to Armenia disguised as a false concern for the country's security, these words can only be described as hypocritical.

If this concern were sincere, Macron would have had the opportunity to provide this assistance earlier and on a more serious scale. But he does not want to help Armenia; he only wants to ignite another military conflict near Russia's borders.

Let us also recall the statement by the Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia, Shalva Papuashvili, that the West (of which France is a part - IA "Res") wanted to use the country as a territory for a second front against Russia, and the words of the Secretary General of the ruling party "Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia," Tbilisi Mayor Kakha Kaladze, that representatives of that same West exerted serious pressure on the Georgian government, forcing it to open a "second front" against Russia.

In this context, it is necessary to pay attention to other destructive actions by France itself to escalate international tensions, which seriously threaten to push the world into the abyss of nuclear war.

These actions are in insurmountable contradiction with Macron's pseudo-peace-loving rhetoric.

For example, in the spring of this year, the French President stated: "We do not want to unleash a third world war."

Immediately after that, he proposed deploying French Rafale fighter jets carrying nuclear weapons in other EU states.

In his opinion, this should help Ukraine and strengthen its position in negotiations with Russia. Yet this directly leads to the escalation of such a conflict!

The master of the Versailles Palace, in his usual manner, has set out to single-handedly become the "savior" of Europe, but his initiative is ready to push its citizens to a very dangerous edge. The 48-year-old Macron clearly underestimates this danger.

The politician's proposal should be considered in the context of his broader idea of deploying a "French nuclear umbrella" over European allies, first voiced by him in early March 2025.

"Our nuclear deterrence protects us. It is comprehensive, sovereign, and entirely French," Macron stated. "However, I have decided to open a strategic debate on protecting our European continental allies through our deterrence."

A "nuclear umbrella" is commonly understood as the guarantee of protection that a nuclear-armed state provides to another country or territory.

In this case, it is obviously about protecting Central Europe from hypothetical aggression by Russia.

However, Macron's initiative has so far found little response among EU leaders, apparently due to the unpredictability of the consequences.

Furthermore, Macron is mistaken about strengthening Kyiv's negotiating position, as evidenced by the results of recent talks in Istanbul.

It is absolutely obvious that the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Europe will not add security, predictability, or stability. This was recently stated by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov.

And yet, the situation is becoming dangerous. To understand its scale, it is necessary to analyze the components of the French nuclear potential, whose history began with the Suez Crisis of 1956.

At that time, Britain, France, and Israel did not enter into direct military confrontation with the USSR, and it became clear what an advantageous position any nuclear-armed state holds.

France's emergence as a nuclear power is associated with the presidency of General de Gaulle. It was under him in 1960 that the first atomic bomb was detonated in the center of the Algerian Sahara during Operation "Blue Jerboa."

In total, from 1960 to 1997, France conducted 210 nuclear tests. At the peak of its arsenal, in 1992, Paris had 540 nuclear warheads, and now it has about 300 strategic warheads at its disposal.

France's modern nuclear potential, unlike the classic triad, is a dyad. Its basis is formed by four Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), each armed with 16 M-51 ballistic missiles with a range of 10,000 kilometers.

They are equipped with TN warheads with a yield of up to 300 kilotons each. Theoretically, all four SSBNs can launch 64 missiles or 384 warheads, but in practice, such power is unattainable, as usually only one boat is on patrol at a time.

The second component is the air force, based on ASMP-A cruise missiles with nuclear warheads carried by Rafale fighter-bombers.

The warhead yield can be set to 150 or 300 kilotons, and the missile's flight range is about 500 kilometers.

It was this component that Macron was talking about when he proposed deploying Rafales in other EU countries. However, the ASMP's range of 500 km is insufficient to threaten central regions of Russia from European territory.

Moreover, in the event of escalation, Russian air defense systems could create a no-fly zone.

President Macron did not name the conditions under which he would give the command to use nuclear weapons. It is unclear what actions by Russia would become a "red line": the use of tactical nuclear weapons, crossing the EU border, and what scale such a violation would have to be.

This reckless step finds no support among Europeans themselves.

According to YouGov polls, more than half (55%) of the French consider a global conflict likely in the next decade, and more than two-thirds fear the use of nuclear weapons.

Most Western Europeans do not want to see even American nuclear weapons in their countries, let alone French ones.

For example, in Germany and Italy, where it is already deployed, 59% and 63% of the population respectively are against it.

No one wants their country to become a target for the nuclear missiles of a potential adversary. Western European public opinion has maintained this sentiment since the Cold War.

Macron's initiative, dictated by the ambitions of a sole "savior," ignores this will of the people and leads to the destabilization of the continent's already fragile security.

Analytical Department of IA "Res"
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166564788