Once Again on the Initiator of the 2008 War

Although much time has passed since 2008, and all the dots have been placed over both "i" and "ё" in the intervening period, many still can't let go of the question: Who was the real instigator?  Or rather, they know perfectly well but constantly seek to blame Russia and South Ossetia, ignoring the obvious facts.  

Meanwhile, both before and after the August 2008 war, many related documents appeared on the internet, which were later deleted, or the blogs and websites hosting them ceased to exist. Fortunately, some of them were copied in time and shed light on certain details of the events.  

Let us present some statements from officials and media figures, most of which remain online to this day.  

As early as April 2005, Givi Targamadze, Chairman of the Defense and Security Committee of the Georgian Parliament, stated:  

"Today, the Georgian army can take control of the entire territory of South Ossetia within three to four days. By the end of 2005, our armed forces will be capable of capturing Sukhumi. As for the myth of the invincible Russian army, this myth has been shattered more than once. We will be able to respond not only to the separatists but also to those who stand behind them."  

In May 2006, he declared:  

"The Georgian army is a force to be reckoned with by all, including the Russian army. The military parade held in Tbilisi on May 26, 2006, in honor of Georgia’s Independence Day, showed both enemies and friends that the Georgian army is well-equipped. The Russian army doesn’t have such disciplined and well-coordinated units. The Georgian army is much better than Russia’s… Georgia will soon achieve its goal and reclaim its historical territories…"  

In October 2006, Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili stated:  

"...Russia is doomed to defeat in a war with Georgia. Our defense capabilities are higher than ever, and we are ready to fight tomorrow if necessary. The negotiation process between Russia and Georgia has completely exhausted itself. Georgia has the largest military budget in the South Caucasus, equal to the entire state budget during Eduard Shevardnadze’s time. Russia does not win small wars—remember the Japanese or Finnish wars. Russia is doomed to lose. ...The Russian army is an inflated entity, technically outdated, with ineffective soldiers. We can start a war tomorrow if needed!"  

That same October 2006, Czech journalist, writer, and politician Jaromír Štětina (a former member of the Czech Senate) wrote an article stating:  

"...The excellently armed, professional Georgian army is no longer the same force that once suffered defeat in Abkhazia. Twenty thousand servicemen, equipped with the latest technology—including fighter jets, missile systems, and state-of-the-art tanks—have become a truly intimidating force capable of countering the Russian military threat. 'We do not want to attack anyone,' Saakashvili said during military exercises, 'but if someone attacks us, we will stick in their throat like a bone.'"  

In March 2008, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili declared:  

"Georgia has never been as strong as it is today. It has never had such opportunities to defend the unity of the state, nor has it ever had such a disciplined and trained army. Today, we are capable of fighting any enemy."  

In July 2007, Georgian Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze, at the opening of a new Defense Ministry office, stated:  

"Georgia is a worthy member of the international community because it has a well-trained and disciplined army. In the past, the Georgian population viewed the army differently—despite soldiers having inner pride and love for their homeland, they were poorly trained. But now, the Georgian army has radically changed, and my heart fills with pride seeing our soldiers, who are the guarantors of peace in the country!"  

It is useful to contrast this statement with her 2009 interview with Izvestia:  

"Mikheil Saakashvili shared his military plans with me as early as August 3, 2008. He said we would take Tskhinval in one night. We met at the residence on August 3 (2008) at 5 PM and spoke for about an hour and twenty minutes. I told him that a war with Russia would end in disaster for Georgia. Saakashvili insisted, 'We will take Tskhinval in one night.' I replied that it wouldn’t work out. Secondly, capturing Tskhinval does not mean solving the problem. I also told him that even if we retake South Ossetia by force, we will lose Abkhazia forever. Saakashvili agreed with this."  

"Nino Anzorovna," the publication writes, "recalled several other conversations and arguments with the president and his inner circle: 'They said the Russians had rusty tanks, that we would win the war, crush them, and even advance all the way to Moscow.'"  

In May 2008, Georgian Ambassador to Ukraine Merab Antadze stated:  

"Fortunately, in the last four years, we can say that Georgia has armed forces. They are small in number but mobile, well-trained, and meet international standards based on NATO programs. As for their readiness... Faced with a threat of military intervention, or even a declaration of war, they are naturally prepared to fulfill their duty and defend Georgia’s territorial integrity and the safety of its people."  

In May 2008, the well-known liberal "military analyst" Pavel Felgenhauer wrote:  

"Georgia has something to fight with. And someone to fight!.. Georgian infantry brigades are trained primarily for combat in mountainous and forested terrain. The training and morale of Georgian army personnel generally match the new military structure and modern weaponry being acquired. Today, military and police service in Georgia is highly prestigious. Soldiers and officers receive decent salaries by Georgian standards—from $500 to $1,000 per month. Western-standard military bases have been built in Senaki, Khoni, Gori, and Kutaisi, as well as for Interior Ministry forces in the Georgian sector of South Ossetia... In modern Georgia, no one—not even those most friendly toward Russia—is willing to give up Abkhazia and South Ossetia without a fight. In the event of an armed conflict, Georgian soldiers and volunteer reservists will fight to liberate their homeland and return hundreds of thousands of refugees, feeling the support of the entire nation."  

In his next interview in July 2008, he continued with renewed enthusiasm:  

"It is clear that the Georgian side will not initiate the conflict, but if a military conflict begins, as far as I know, the Georgians do not plan to retreat. The headquarters are ready for action…"  

On August 7, 2008, the Ukrainian newspaper Segodnya reported that Georgia had purchased 1,500 body bags from Turkey.  

To this, we should add the following facts:  

- Long before the invasion, the Georgian battalion of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone repeatedly violated rotation schedules to cycle as many soldiers as possible through the future theater of war.  

- In violation of previously signed agreements, Georgian reconnaissance drones and helicopters conducted surveillance flights over South Ossetian territory.  

- In Gori, two neighboring schools were closed and repurposed into a morgue with 260 spots.  

- On the morning of August 8, 2008, Georgian television aired a report on the Georgian army’s entry into Tskhinval, which did not mention a single word about a Russian military invasion. It is also worth recalling that the multi-day "rally against Russian occupation" in Tbilisi began as a "victory rally."  

Thus, the initiator of the 2008 war is obvious. This is also confirmed by dozens of statements from modern Georgian politicians and experts who directly blame the Saakashvili regime.  

Analytical Department of IA "Res"  
Source: https://cominf.org/node/1166564529